A 2014 calendar for climate change policy-making

● By Prof. David Hodgkinson, University of Western Australia ● To mark the beginning of a new year, I have put together a list of some of the major issues and events expected to influence climate change policy-making in 2014. From 1 to 8, these are my top predictions. 1. Countries struggle to reach agreement on mitigation targets In 2011, nations participating in the Durban climate change conference agreed “to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” on emissions reduction targets applicable to both developed and developing states. Then, in 2012, it was agreed that “elements” of a draft negotiating text for such a document would be “considered” no later than the end of 2014, “with a view” to a negotiating text before May 2015, for agreement later that year and then implementation in 2020. Last year, at Warsaw, a loose time-frame was set for countries to propose their “intended nationally determined contributions” to the 2015 agreement – the end of the first quarter of 2015 for those “ready to do so”. Nations are now unsure how to fulfill these proposed contributions, and don’t have plans to deliver on them. Overall, states aren’t ready to collectively address the climate change problem. 2. Scientists agree that the planet has a carbon budget The September publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report on the physical science basis for climate change referred for the first time to a global cumulative carbon budget. The IPCC found that to hold global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels (the limit agreed by most states as a global warming “safety threshold”), total emissions cannot exceed one trillion tonnes of carbon. By 2011, 515 gigatons (more than half of the threshold amount) had already been emitted ...Zum vollständigen Artikel

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